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Go Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Regular Season - 31 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 16:45

Go Ahead Eagles

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

AZ Alkmaar

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.1%0-23.4%0-31.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.0%1-18.3%1-27.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.4%3-15.8%3-24.8%3-32.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.7%4+-23.9%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 34.5% 2.90 +34.8%

Draw 21.3% 26.0% 3.85 -18.0%

Away win 32.3% 46.5% 2.15 -30.6%

Over 2.5 71.6% 66.7% 1.50 +7.4%

Over 3.5 50.8% 44.4% 2.25 +14.3%

BTTS 70.7% 69.4% 1.44 +1.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob70.7%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Go Ahead Eagles2.0

AZ Alkmaar1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GO AHEAD EAGLES · PPG 1.60

AZ ALKMAAR · PPG 1.27

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Go Ahead Eagles (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +34.8%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -18.0%

AZ Alkmaar (A) 32.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -30.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Go Ahead Eagles face AZ Alkmaar in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Go Ahead Eagles a 47% chance, the draw 21% and AZ Alkmaar 32%, so Go Ahead Eagles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Go Ahead Eagles and 1.7 for AZ Alkmaar (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Go Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.27 for AZ Alkmaar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Go Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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