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Persita vs Bali Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 08:30

Persita

PPG 1.86 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bali Utd

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.2%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.6%1-110.2%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.4%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 44.4% 2.25 +30.0%

Draw 21.8% 30.3% 3.30 -28.1%

Away win 20.3% 35.7% 2.80 -43.2%

Over 2.5 57.9% 54.1% 1.85 +7.1%

Over 3.5 35.5% 31.3% 3.20 +13.6%

BTTS 56.2% 59.9% 1.67 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.2%

H 58% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persita1.9

Bali Utd1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSITA · PPG 1.86

BALI UTD · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Persita (H) 57.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +30.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -28.1%

Bali Utd (A) 20.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -43.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persita face Bali Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persita a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Bali Utd 20%, so Persita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Persita and 1.1 for Bali Utd (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persita are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.50 for Bali Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Persita vs Bali Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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