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Levante vs Sevilla FC Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 17:00

Levante

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sevilla FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+32.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.2%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.4%1-19.9%1-26.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.5%3-16.0%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 39.4% 2.54 +28.5%

Draw 22.3% 31.7% 3.15 -29.8%

Away win 27.1% 35.5% 2.82 -23.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 47.6% 2.10 +32.5%

Over 3.5 40.9% 26.3% 3.80 +55.4%

BTTS 62.9% 55.6% 1.80 +13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.9%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 7.4%

#4 2–0✓ 7.0%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levante1.9

Sevilla FC1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVANTE · PPG 1.06

SEVILLA FC · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Levante (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +28.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -29.8%

Sevilla FC (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levante face Sevilla FC in Spain - La Liga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levante a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Sevilla FC 27%, so Levante are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Levante and 1.3 for Sevilla FC (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levante are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.00 for Sevilla FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +55.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Levante vs Sevilla FC Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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