Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Napredak vs IMT N. Beograd

Napredak vs IMT N. Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group - 32 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 16:00

Napredak

PPG 0.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

IMT N. Beograd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+22.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.9%0-26.2%0-33.8%0-4+2.6%1 1-05.6%1-110.1%1-29.1%1-35.5%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.3%2-26.6%2-34.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.0%3-13.6%3-23.2%3-31.9%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 14.1% 7.10 +121.5%

Draw 22.8% 23.8% 4.20 -4.2%

Away win 45.9% 71.4% 1.40 -35.7%

Over 2.5 63.3% 57.1% 1.75 +10.8%

Over 3.5 41.2% 34.5% 2.90 +19.5%

BTTS 64.1% 52.4% 1.91 +22.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.1%

A 46% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–1✓ 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Napredak1.5

IMT N. Beograd1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPREDAK · PPG 0.67

IMT N. BEOGRAD · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Napredak (H) 31.2%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV +121.5%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.2%

IMT N. Beograd (A) 45.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -35.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Napredak face IMT N. Beograd in Serbia - Super Liga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Napredak a 31% chance, the draw 23% and IMT N. Beograd 46%, so IMT N. Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Napredak and 1.8 for IMT N. Beograd (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Napredak are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for IMT N. Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +121.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Napredak vs IMT N. Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Serbia - Super Liga Predictions