Wieczysta K. vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Poland - I Liga Regular Season - 25 ArcelorMittal Park· Sosnowiec Thursday, April 23, 2026 18:00

Wieczysta K. PPG 1.46

4-3 MISS

Polonia Bytom PPG 1.08

BTTS· +1.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Wieczysta K. face Polonia Bytom in Poland - I Liga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wieczysta K. a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Polonia Bytom 26%, so Wieczysta K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Wieczysta K. and 1.4 for Polonia Bytom (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wieczysta K. are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.08 for Polonia Bytom. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 4-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.6%

Odds: 1.75 EV: -8.0%

Draw 21.2%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -25.8%

Away 26.2%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -0.4%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.8% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 46.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 66.3% Odds: 1.53 +1.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-2 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Wieczysta K.

2.07

Polonia Bytom

1.42

Model SuggestionOver 2.5  EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (—), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 60%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 53% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.46) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)