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Wieczysta K. vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 25 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 18:00

Wieczysta K.

PPG 1.46 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.3%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.3%1-18.9%1-26.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.5%3-16.4%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Draw 21.2% 28.6% 3.50 -25.8%

Away win 26.2% 26.3% 3.80 -0.4%

Over 2.5 67.8% — — —

Over 3.5 46.2% — — —

BTTS 66.3% 65.4% 1.53 +1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob66.3%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wieczysta K.2.1

Polonia Bytom1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.8% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WIECZYSTA K. · PPG 1.46

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.46) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Wieczysta K. (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -8.0%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -25.8%

Polonia Bytom (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wieczysta K. face Polonia Bytom in Poland - I Liga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wieczysta K. a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Polonia Bytom 26%, so Wieczysta K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Wieczysta K. and 1.4 for Polonia Bytom (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wieczysta K. are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.08 for Polonia Bytom. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 4-3.

Wieczysta K. vs Polonia Bytom Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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