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Damak vs Al Akhdoud Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 29 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 18:00

Damak

PPG 0.86 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Al Akhdoud

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-19.3%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.7%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.7%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.5%3-13.9%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 61.0% 1.64 -20.8%

Draw 27.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.3%

Away win 24.0% 19.6% 5.10 +22.4%

Over 2.5 38.7% 54.1% 1.85 -28.4%

Over 3.5 18.8% 31.3% 3.20 -39.8%

BTTS 43.3% 54.6% 1.83 -20.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.3%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 2–0✓ 9.9%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Damak1.4

Al Akhdoud0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DAMAK · PPG 0.86

AL AKHDOUD · PPG 0.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.86) > Away POOR (0.31)

Win probability 1X2

Damak (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -20.8%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.3%

Al Akhdoud (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Damak face Al Akhdoud in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Damak a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Al Akhdoud 24%, so Damak are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Damak and 0.9 for Al Akhdoud (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Damak are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.31 for Al Akhdoud. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Damak vs Al Akhdoud Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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