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PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Regular Season - 31 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 19:00

PSV Eindhoven

PPG 2.33 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

PEC Zwolle

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 93.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.3%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.2%1-11.5%1-20.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.2%2 2-02.9%2-13.6%2-22.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-15.6%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-020.1%4+-124.9%4+-215.5%4+-36.4%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 89.7% 84.7% 1.18 +5.9%

Draw 6.1% 14.1% 7.10 -56.7%

Away win 4.2% 8.3% 12.00 -49.6%

Over 2.5 93.6% 83.3% 1.20 +12.3%

Over 3.5 84.6% 64.5% 1.55 +31.1%

BTTS 70.5% 66.7% 1.50 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)4.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob70.5%

H 90% / xG 4.7-1.2 / O2.5 94% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.6%

#2 5–1 6.2%

#3 3–1 5.6%

#4 4–0 5.3%

#5 5–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSV Eindhoven4.7

PEC Zwolle1.2

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 93.6% · O3.5 PROB 84.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PSV EINDHOVEN · PPG 2.33

PEC ZWOLLE · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

PSV Eindhoven (H) 89.7%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV +5.9%

Draw 6.1%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV -56.7%

PEC Zwolle (A) 4.2%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV -49.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

PSV Eindhoven face PEC Zwolle in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 90% chance, the draw 6% and PEC Zwolle 4%, so PSV Eindhoven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.7 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.2 for PEC Zwolle (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 94% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.60 for PEC Zwolle. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 6-1.

PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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