Primera A

COLOMBIA · 86 MATCHES TRACKED · 17 APR 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

Upcoming Primera A predictions

2 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

3 SEPT21:00 America de Cali vs Alianza Valledupar Home 75% 1.39 +4%4 SEPT01:00 Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin BTTS 53% 1.85 -2%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 76 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

44.7%

1X2

34/76

44.7%

O/U 2.5

34/76

44.7%

BTTS

34/76

47.4%

Exact score

36/76

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

54.1%

Hit rate

20/37

1.90

Avg odds

+3.3%

ROI

+1.2u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=15 46.7% HIT · AVG 1.87 · -9.9% ROI

BTTS · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.89 · +20.7% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 2.06 · -35.0% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.66 · +27.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.42 · +142.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

47%

Hit

-16.3%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

60%

Hit

+19.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

50%

Hit

-10.0%

ROI

Match log

76 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 3 PICKS · 3 HIT · 0 MISS

3 SEPT Santa Fe vs Millonarios BTTS +5% 3–2 HIT 2 SEPT Fortaleza FC vs Once Caldas BTTS -3% 1–2 HIT 1 SEPT Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta HO1.5 2–1 HIT

August 2026 // 8 PICKS · 4 HIT · 4 MISS

31 AUG Deportivo Cali vs Bucaramanga — NO PICK 1–1 —31 AUG Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Pereira Home -22% 1–2 MISS 30 AUG Alianza Valledupar vs Atletico Nacional — NO PICK 1–5 —30 AUG Águilas Doradas vs Chico Home +11% 2–2 MISS 30 AUG Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros Home -27% 2–1 HIT 30 AUG Millonarios vs Internacional de Bogota HO1.5 0–0 MISS 29 AUG Jaguares vs America de Cali — NO PICK 2–2 —29 AUG Junior vs Santa Fe BTTS +0% 1–1 HIT 28 AUG Internacional de Bogota vs Deportivo Pasto Over 2.5 +28% 1–1 MISS 27 AUG Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali Home -8% 2–1 HIT 27 AUG Llaneros vs Millonarios — NO PICK 0–2 —26 AUG Cucuta vs Alianza Valledupar Home +17% 1–0 HIT