Al Najma vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 29 King Abdullah Sports City Stadium· Buraidah Thursday, April 23, 2026 16:10

Al Najma PPG 0.64

1-2 HIT CS4

Al Taawon PPG 1.50

Over3.5· +47.6% 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Najma face Al Taawon in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Najma a 9% chance, the draw 13% and Al Taawon 79%, so Al Taawon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Al Najma and 3.0 for Al Taawon (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Najma are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Taawon. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +47.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 8.5%

Odds: 4.60 EV: -60.9%

Draw 12.7%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -53.0%

Away 78.8%

Odds: 1.73 EV: +36.3%

Model lean: Away

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 75.5% Odds: 1.67 +26.1%

Over 3.5 55.7% Odds: 2.65 +47.6%

BTTS 57.9% Odds: 1.60 -7.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-3 ✘

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 1-3 ✘

4th 1-2 ✔

5th 0-4 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Najma

0.94

Al Taawon

3.01

Model SuggestionAway +36.3% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+47.6%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.64)