Today / Saudi-Arabia - Pro League / Al Najma vs Al Taawon

Al Najma vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 29 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 16:10

Al Najma

PPG 0.64 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al Taawon

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+36.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-15.8%0-28.7%0-38.8%0-4+13.9%1 1-01.8%1-15.4%1-28.2%1-38.2%1-4+13.0%2 2-00.8%2-12.6%2-23.8%2-33.9%2-4+6.1%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-21.2%3-31.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.5% 21.7% 4.60 -60.9%

Draw 12.7% 27.0% 3.70 -53.0%

Away win 78.8% 57.8% 1.73 +36.3%

Over 2.5 75.5% 59.9% 1.67 +26.1%

Over 3.5 55.7% 37.7% 2.65 +47.6%

BTTS 57.9% 62.5% 1.60 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob57.9%

A 79% / xG 0.9-3.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.8%

#2 0–2 8.7%

#3 1–3 8.2%

#4 1–2✓ 8.2%

#5 0–4 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Najma0.9

Al Taawon3.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.5% · O3.5 PROB 55.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NAJMA · PPG 0.64

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Al Najma (H) 8.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -60.9%

Draw 12.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -53.0%

Al Taawon (A) 78.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Najma face Al Taawon in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Najma a 9% chance, the draw 13% and Al Taawon 79%, so Al Taawon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Al Najma and 3.0 for Al Taawon (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Najma are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Taawon. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +47.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Najma vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Predictions