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Montego Bay vs Tivoli Gardens Prediction

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Montego Bay

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tivoli Gardens

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away POOR (0.94) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-12.2%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.5%1-16.1%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-18.2%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.7%3-17.4%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.3%4+-19.7%4+-23.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.9% — — —

Draw 12.8% — — —

Away win 6.3% — — —

Over 2.5 65.0% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 43.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.9%

H 81% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 65% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 3–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montego Bay2.7

Tivoli Gardens0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEGO BAY · PPG 2.29

TIVOLI GARDENS · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away POOR (0.94) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Montego Bay (H) 80.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 12.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tivoli Gardens (A) 6.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Montego Bay face Tivoli Gardens on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montego Bay a 81% chance, the draw 13% and Tivoli Gardens 6%, so Montego Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Montego Bay and 0.6 for Tivoli Gardens (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montego Bay are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.94 for Tivoli Gardens.

Montego Bay vs Tivoli Gardens Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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