Premier League

ARMENIA · 33 MATCHES TRACKED · 14 APR 2026 – 27 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 32 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

53.1%

1X2

17/32

46.9%

O/U 2.5

15/32

56.2%

BTTS

18/32

50.0%

Exact score

16/32

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

55.6%

Hit rate

15/27

1.58

Avg odds

-20.4%

ROI

-5.5u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=10 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.53 · +5.0% ROI

BTTS · N=8 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.77 · -55.6% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.38 · -8.2% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.89 · -3.5% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.20 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

80%

Hit

+5.2%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

40%

Hit

-27.4%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

53%

Hit

-25.9%

ROI

Match log

32 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 14 PICKS · 8 HIT · 6 MISS

27 MAY Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar HO1.5 1–0 MISS 27 MAY Urartu vs Noah BTTS -9% 0–5 MISS 27 MAY Pyunik vs Van Home -23% 2–1 HIT 26 MAY Ararat Yerevan vs BKMA Over 2.5 -3% 1–1 MISS 26 MAY Alashkert vs Shirak Home -17% 2–0 HIT 23 MAY Pyunik vs Noah — NO PICK 0–0 —19 MAY Noah vs Ararat Yerevan Home -22% 8–3 HIT 18 MAY Shirak vs Urartu Away -4% 0–0 MISS 18 MAY Gandzasar vs Pyunik Away -28% 0–2 HIT 17 MAY BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia Away -33% 2–3 HIT 16 MAY Van vs Alashkert BTTS -5% 0–1 MISS 10 MAY Ararat Yerevan vs Urartu Away -1% 0–1 HIT 10 MAY Ararat-Armenia vs Noah BTTS -6% 0–4 MISS 9 MAY Alashkert vs Gandzasar Home -27% 3–1 HIT 9 MAY Pyunik vs BKMA Home -34% 2–0 HIT