Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Super Nova vs Liepaja

Super Nova vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 8 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 15:00

Super Nova

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Liepaja

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-113.9%0-28.7%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.5%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.0%2-16.2%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.6%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 27.8% 3.60 +0.4%

Draw 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.4%

Away win 43.4% 54.1% 1.85 -19.7%

Over 2.5 37.6% 54.1% 1.85 -30.4%

Over 3.5 18.0% 31.3% 3.20 -42.4%

BTTS 43.6% 57.8% 1.73 -24.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob43.6%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.9%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova0.9

Liepaja1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.50

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova (H) 27.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.4%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.4%

Liepaja (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova face Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 28% chance, the draw 29% and Liepaja 43%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Super Nova and 1.3 for Liepaja (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Super Nova vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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