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Necaxa vs Guadalajara Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura - 16 ·Thursday, April 23, 2026, 03:10

Necaxa

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Guadalajara

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.9%0-26.8%0-34.5%0-4+3.4%1 1-04.9%1-19.6%1-29.4%1-36.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.6%2-26.5%2-34.2%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.5%3-13.0%3-23.0%3-31.9%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% 17.9% 5.60 +51.2%

Draw 21.9% 23.1% 4.33 -5.2%

Away win 51.1% 66.2% 1.51 -22.8%

Over 2.5 64.9% 64.5% 1.55 +0.6%

Over 3.5 42.9% 42.6% 2.35 +0.8%

BTTS 64.3% 61.7% 1.62 +4.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob64.3%

A 51% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 6.9%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Necaxa1.4

Guadalajara2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NECAXA · PPG 1.25

GUADALAJARA · PPG 1.88

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Necaxa (H) 27.0%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +51.2%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.2%

Guadalajara (A) 51.1%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Necaxa face Guadalajara in Mexico - Liga MX on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Necaxa a 27% chance, the draw 22% and Guadalajara 51%, so Guadalajara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Necaxa and 2.0 for Guadalajara (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Necaxa are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.88 for Guadalajara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Necaxa vs Guadalajara Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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