Necaxa vs Guadalajara Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 16 Estadio Victoria· Aguascalientes Thursday, April 23, 2026 03:10

Necaxa PPG 1.25

0-0 MISS

Guadalajara PPG 1.88

Home· +51.2% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Necaxa face Guadalajara in Mexico - Liga MX on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Necaxa a 27% chance, the draw 22% and Guadalajara 51%, so Guadalajara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Necaxa and 2.0 for Guadalajara (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Necaxa are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.88 for Guadalajara. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.0%

Odds: 5.60 EV: +51.2%

Draw 21.9%

Odds: 4.33 EV: -5.2%

Away 51.1%

Odds: 1.51 EV: -22.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 64.9% Odds: 1.55 +0.6%

Over 3.5 42.9% Odds: 2.35 +0.8%

BTTS 64.3% Odds: 1.62 +4.2%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Necaxa

1.38

Guadalajara

1.96

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +0.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+51.2%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)