08:00
H
22.1%
D
28.6%
A
49.3%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 48.1% · BTTS 52.3%
Score
1–2
0–3
MissFootball predictions today · Mon 4 May
205 graded O2.5 59% BTTS 57% 1X2 47% Full record →
08:30
H
56.9% -30.6%
D
27.1% +38.2%
A
16.0% +76.0%
Home
O2.5 46.0% · BTTS 47.2%
Score
3–0
1–0
Hit12:00
H
22.0% +1.2%
D
29.2% +3.7%
A
48.8% -18.5%
BTTS
O2.5 46.2% · BTTS 50.9%
Score
1–2
0–2
Miss
11:30
H
85.3% -8.7%
D
10.0% -22.0%
A
4.7% +8.1%
Home
O2.5 82.6% · BTTS 58.0%
Score
4–1
1–0
Hit
12:00
H
51.0% -4.1%
D
24.9% -9.1%
A
24.1% -15.7%
BTTS
O2.5 63.3% · BTTS 64.1%
Score
3–1
0–2
Miss
13:45
H
38.9% -10.5%
D
31.7% -6.5%
A
29.4% -16.2%
No bet
O2.5 42.0% · BTTS 49.7%
Score
1–1
2–1
Skipped14:00
H
42.4% -29.6%
D
29.0% +10.2%
A
28.7% +40.6%
BTTS
O2.5 51.2% · BTTS 56.6%
Score
2–1
1–3
Hit19:00
H
25.2% +63.8%
D
29.2% +28.5%
A
45.6% -33.9%
BTTS
O2.5 48.6% · BTTS 53.8%
Score
1–2
3–3
Hit
14:00
H
20.8% -19.9%
D
27.9% -5.1%
A
51.3% -6.1%
BTTS
O2.5 49.6% · BTTS 52.8%
Score
1–2
1–1
Hit
15:00
H
32.8% +5.0%
D
30.8% -3.0%
A
36.4% -20.6%
BTTS
O2.5 45.8% · BTTS 52.9%
Score
2–2
1–4
Hit15:00
H
24.1% +1.2%
D
28.6% +1.5%
A
47.3% -18.2%
BTTS
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 54.4%
Score
1–2
1–2
Hit
15:30
H
43.0% -36.4%
D
32.1% +20.4%
A
25.0% +56.3%
No bet
O2.5 39.0% · BTTS 46.4%
Score
2–0
2–1
Skipped
16:00
H
38.6% -18.9%
D
33.4% +6.9%
A
28.0% -10.4%
No bet
O2.5 36.3% · BTTS 44.9%
Score
2–0
0–1
Skipped16:00
H
11.4% -37.3%
D
25.8% +3.2%
A
62.8% -5.8%
Away
O2.5 42.3% · BTTS 40.0%
Score
0–2
1–3
Hit16:00
H
38.7% -1.7%
D
28.9% -11.9%
A
32.4% -11.9%
BTTS
O2.5 52.4% · BTTS 57.9%
Score
2–2
3–1
Hit
16:00
H
24.6% -39.0%
D
32.6% +10.8%
A
42.8% +15.6%
No bet
O2.5 37.2% · BTTS 44.9%
Score
0–2
1–2
Skipped16:00
H
32.8% +0.0%
D
32.6% +19.0%
A
34.5% -26.2%
No bet
O2.5 39.5% · BTTS 48.0%
Score
1–1
2–1
Skipped16:00
H
19.7% +34.0%
D
30.6% +28.5%
A
49.8% -27.3%
No bet
O2.5 39.6% · BTTS 44.8%
Score
0–2
1–0
Skipped16:00
H
37.0% -24.1%
D
35.9% +23.9%
A
27.1% -6.5%
No bet
O2.5 28.9% · BTTS 38.7%
Score
1–1
1–1
Skipped16:00
H
25.4% -16.2%
D
30.0% +0.5%
A
44.5% -4.3%
BTTS
O2.5 45.8% · BTTS 51.7%
Score
1–2
1–0
Miss16:00
H
39.5% -21.0%
D
30.1% -0.7%
A
30.4% +12.5%
BTTS
O2.5 47.6% · BTTS 54.1%
Score
2–2
2–2
Hit16:00
H
44.4% -20.1%
D
28.9% +1.1%
A
26.6% +15.2%
BTTS
O2.5 50.4% · BTTS 55.5%
Score
2–1
1–1
Hit16:00
H
54.4% -19.5%
D
26.8% +7.2%
A
18.8% +31.6%
Home
O2.5 50.9% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
2–1
4–1
Hit16:00
H
21.8% +4.6%
D
30.3% +12.1%
A
47.8% -19.2%
No bet
O2.5 42.2% · BTTS 47.8%
Score
0–2
1–1
Skipped16:00
H
24.0% +9.2%
D
28.4% +16.4%
A
47.6% -21.5%
BTTS
O2.5 50.5% · BTTS 54.8%
Score
1–2
3–3
Hit
16:00
H
37.3% -17.9%
D
26.2% -16.2%
A
36.4% +1.9%
BTTS
+14.5%
O2.5 63.2% · BTTS 66.2%
Score
3–1
2–1
Hit16:00
H
39.8% -2.5%
D
31.7% -1.7%
A
28.5% -23.1%
No bet
O2.5 41.7% · BTTS 49.3%
Score
2–0
1–3
Skipped
16:00
H
37.8% -3.6%
D
33.0% -4.3%
A
29.3% -19.4%
No bet
O2.5 37.8% · BTTS 46.3%
Score
1–1
2–1
Skipped20:00
H
42.7% -24.4%
D
34.2% +11.2%
A
23.1% +1.6%
No bet
O2.5 31.8% · BTTS 40.1%
Score
2–0
2–1
Skipped
16:00
H
41.9% +4.8%
D
27.5% -12.0%
A
30.6% -25.0%
BTTS
O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 61.4%
Score
2–1
3–2
Hit
16:10
H
50.6% +17.9%
D
26.9% -12.6%
A
22.5% -32.5%
BTTS
+1.1%
O2.5 54.5% · BTTS 57.1%
Score
2–1
4–2
Hit18:00
H
61.7% -5.6%
D
21.6% -6.5%
A
16.7% -8.2%
O2.5
+2.4%
O2.5 66.9% · BTTS 62.8%
Score
3–1
0–0
Miss18:00
H
46.4% -31.3%
D
27.6% +27.0%
A
26.0% +50.8%
BTTS
O2.5 54.7% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
2–1
0–0
Miss
16:30
H
25.1% -26.7%
D
34.0% +5.4%
A
40.8% +1.2%
No bet
O2.5 33.3% · BTTS 41.9%
Score
0–2
1–2
Skipped18:45
H
50.7% -20.4%
D
29.6% +15.4%
A
19.7% +10.3%
Home
O2.5 42.7% · BTTS 47.1%
Score
2–0
4–0
Hit
16:30
H
39.9% +7.7%
D
29.5% +4.7%
A
30.6% -26.6%
BTTS
O2.5 49.9% · BTTS 55.9%
Score
2–2
2–1
Hit
17:00
H
56.7% -12.1%
D
23.5% +1.8%
A
19.8% +4.0%
O2.5
O2.5 64.2% · BTTS 62.8%
Score
3–1
3–3
Hit
17:00
H
38.6% -10.4%
D
32.7% -7.8%
A
28.7% -5.3%
No bet
O2.5 38.5% · BTTS 46.8%
Score
1–1
1–2
Skipped17:00
H
49.2% -14.4%
D
30.1% -2.2%
A
20.7% -0.6%
No bet
O2.5 42.0% · BTTS 47.1%
Score
2–0
1–2
Skipped17:00
H
48.0% +15.2%
D
24.4% -12.2%
A
27.6% -26.6%
BTTS
+2.6%
O2.5 67.8% · BTTS 68.4%
Score
3–1
3–1
Hit
17:00
H
40.0% +18.4%
D
32.6% +1.1%
A
27.4% -36.4%
No bet
O2.5 38.4% · BTTS 46.5%
Score
2–0
1–0
Skipped17:00
H
40.6% -25.3%
D
32.9% +8.6%
A
26.5% +8.6%
No bet
O2.5 37.1% · BTTS 45.3%
Score
2–0
3–2
Skipped
17:30
H
54.1% +40.7%
D
26.7% -10.5%
A
19.2% -53.9%
Home
+40.7%
O2.5 51.8% · BTTS 53.5%
Score
2–1
2–0
Hit17:30
H
60.9% -20.8%
D
27.1% +24.7%
A
12.0% -4.0%
Home
O2.5 39.6% · BTTS 38.9%
Score
2–0
0–0
Miss
18:00
H
66.0% -22.8%
D
21.9% +27.0%
A
12.1% +57.3%
Home
O2.5 57.4% · BTTS 51.6%
Score
2–1
3–2
Hit
18:00
H
57.2% +5.3%
D
26.2% -9.6%
A
16.6% -30.3%
Home
+5.3%
O2.5 50.3% · BTTS 50.8%
Score
2–1
0–1
Miss
18:30
H
58.5% -14.6%
D
22.7% +1.0%
A
18.8% +16.6%
O2.5
O2.5 65.9% · BTTS 63.5%
Score
3–1
4–2
Hit19:00
H
36.1% -16.3%
D
27.5% -6.5%
A
36.4% +6.3%
BTTS
+8.1%
O2.5 58.3% · BTTS 62.5%
Score
1–2
1–0
Miss19:15
H
69.5% -13.1%
D
20.0% +15.0%
A
10.5% +5.0%
Home
O2.5 60.9% · BTTS 52.1%
Score
3–1
5–1
Hit
22:00
H
52.0% +6.6%
D
26.4% -10.2%
A
21.6% -33.0%
BTTS
O2.5 55.3% · BTTS 57.3%
Score
2–1
4–0
Miss
22:15
H
55.0% -10.9%
D
28.3% -0.9%
A
16.7% +0.2%
Home
O2.5 43.1% · BTTS 45.5%
Score
2–0
1–1
Miss
22:30
H
38.8% -33.7%
D
34.7% +16.2%
A
26.5% +28.5%
No bet
O2.5 32.0% · BTTS 41.1%
Score
2–0
1–1
Skipped23:00
H
53.2% -8.0%
D
31.0% -3.9%
A
15.7% -21.5%
Home
O2.5 34.0% · BTTS 38.1%
Score
2–0
3–2
Hit23:00
H
49.5% +4.0%
D
32.7% -5.8%
A
17.8% -34.1%
No bet
O2.5 31.7% · BTTS 37.7%
Score
2–0
0–0
Skipped—
H
18.8%
D
23.1%
A
58.1%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 64.5% · BTTS 62.5%
Score
1–3
1–2
Hit—
H
31.1%
D
32.4%
A
36.4%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 39.9% · BTTS 48.2%
Score
1–1
2–1
Skipped—
H
26.6%
D
39.6%
A
33.8%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 20.7% · BTTS 31.1%
Score
1–1
1–1
Skipped—
H
36.5%
D
30.3%
A
33.2%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 47.6% · BTTS 54.3%
Score
2–2
2–1
Hit—
H
36.1%
D
33.6%
A
30.3%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 36.1% · BTTS 45.1%
Score
1–1
1–4
Skipped—
H
40.0%
D
33.2%
A
26.8%
— no odds —
No bet
O2.5 36.4% · BTTS 44.8%
Score
2–0
2–0
Skipped—
H
22.3%
D
29.0%
A
48.6%
— no odds —
BTTS
O2.5 47.0% · BTTS 51.6%
Score
1–2
1–1
HitHow the model calls it
01 · Strength
Attack and defence ratings per team from recent form, weighted by opposition — the inputs behind expected goals.
02 · Poisson
Goal expectancies become a full scoreline matrix: win, draw, Over 2.5, BTTS and top correct scores from one distribution.
03 · Edge
Model probability vs live bookmaker odds. A positive gap is value, flagged on every outcome as +EV%. No edge, no bet.
Questions, answered straight
How accurate are these football predictions?
Every pick is graded automatically at full time and kept on the public record. The full history, including losing days, is on the Accuracy page.
What is a value bet?
A bet where the model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. If the model says 49% and the odds imply 34%, that gap is the edge — shown as +EV% next to each outcome. Value bets can still lose; the point is being paid more than the risk is worth over hundreds of bets.
How does a Poisson model predict matches?
It estimates how many goals each team is expected to score from attack and defence strength, then computes the probability of every scoreline. Summing those scorelines gives win/draw/loss, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities from a single consistent model.
Are the predictions free?
Yes — every match, every league, every day.
Why does the model say "No bet" on some matches?
When no outcome clears the confidence threshold, the model passes. Skipping bad spots is part of how the hit rate stays honest — a tip site that picks every match is selling volume, not edge.