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FC Midtjylland vs Viborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group · Matchday 30 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 17:00

FC Midtjylland

PPG 2.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Viborg

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.4%0-22.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.7%1-19.3%1-25.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.8%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.9%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 64.5% 1.55 -12.1%

Draw 23.5% 23.1% 4.33 +1.8%

Away win 19.8% 19.0% 5.25 +4.0%

Over 2.5 64.2% 66.7% 1.50 -3.7%

Over 3.5 42.1% 44.4% 2.25 -5.3%

BTTS 62.8% 64.5% 1.55 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.8%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Midtjylland2.1

Viborg1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC MIDTJYLLAND · PPG 2.07

VIBORG · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

FC Midtjylland (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -12.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.8%

Viborg (A) 19.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Midtjylland face Viborg in Denmark - Superliga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Midtjylland a 57% chance, the draw 24% and Viborg 20%, so FC Midtjylland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Midtjylland and 1.2 for Viborg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Midtjylland are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.43 for Viborg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-3.

FC Midtjylland vs Viborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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