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Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 15 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 2.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDD

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.4%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.2%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.0%3-15.7%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 67.6% 1.48 -19.5%

Draw 26.8% 25.0% 4.00 +7.2%

Away win 18.8% 14.3% 7.00 +31.6%

Over 2.5 50.9% 51.3% 1.95 -0.7%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.0% 3.45 -0.3%

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamrock Rovers1.8

Drogheda Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 2.71

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

64%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Win probability 1X2

Shamrock Rovers (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -19.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +7.2%

Drogheda Utd (A) 18.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamrock Rovers face Drogheda Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Drogheda Utd 19%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Shamrock Rovers and 1.0 for Drogheda Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.33 for Drogheda Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 4-1.

Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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