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Hearts vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 35 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:30

Hearts

PPG 2.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rangers

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.5%0-25.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.3%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-18.8%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.4%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 37.0% 2.70 +7.7%

Draw 29.5% 28.2% 3.55 +4.7%

Away win 30.6% 41.7% 2.40 -26.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 27.9% 35.7% 2.80 -21.9%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1✓ 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hearts1.4

Rangers1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HEARTS · PPG 2.53

RANGERS · PPG 1.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.53) > Away GOOD (1.94)

Win probability 1X2

Hearts (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +7.7%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +4.7%

Rangers (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hearts face Rangers in Scotland - Premiership on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hearts a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Rangers 31%, so Hearts are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hearts and 1.2 for Rangers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hearts are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.94 for Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Hearts vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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