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Vasas vs Budafoki Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Regular Season - 28 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 18:00

Vasas

PPG 2.15 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Budafoki

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.2%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-19.1%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-17.0%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.2%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 85.5% 1.17 -22.8%

Draw 21.9% 17.2% 5.80 +27.0%

Away win 12.1% 7.7% 13.00 +57.3%

Over 2.5 57.4% 65.4% 1.53 -12.2%

Over 3.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

BTTS 51.6% 46.5% 2.15 +10.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -29.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasas2.1

Budafoki0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VASAS · PPG 2.15

BUDAFOKI · PPG 0.69

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.15), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vasas (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -22.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +27.0%

Budafoki (A) 12.1%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +57.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasas face Budafoki in Hungary - NB II on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasas a 66% chance, the draw 22% and Budafoki 12%, so Vasas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Vasas and 0.8 for Budafoki (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasas are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.69 for Budafoki. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Vasas vs Budafoki Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

More Hungary - NB II Predictions