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Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Poland - Ekstraklasa logo Poland flag Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 31 Stadion im. Braci Czachorów· Radom Monday, May 4, 2026 17:00
Radomiak Radom logo Radomiak Radom PPG 1.87
3-1 MISS
Lechia Gdansk logo Lechia Gdansk PPG 1.07
Over3.5· +17.8% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomiak Radom face Lechia Gdansk in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomiak Radom a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Lechia Gdansk 28%, so Radomiak Radom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Radomiak Radom and 1.5 for Lechia Gdansk (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.07 for Lechia Gdansk. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.0%
Odds: 2.40 EV: +15.2%
Draw 24.4%
Odds: 3.60 EV: -12.2%
Away 27.6%
Odds: 2.66 EV: -26.6%
Model lean: BTTS
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.8% Odds: 1.62 +9.8%
Over 3.5 46.2% Odds: 2.55 +17.8%
BTTS 68.4% Odds: 1.50 +2.6%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 1-2
4th 2-2
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Radomiak Radom
2.00
Lechia Gdansk
1.50

Model Suggestion

BTTS +2.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+17.8%)

League Track Record

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%
O2.5/Under 60%
BTTS/No 55%
Score Hit 47%
ROI -16.8%
Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

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