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Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 17:00

Radomiak Radom

PPG 1.87 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lechia Gdansk

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.5%0-23.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.1%1-19.1%1-26.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.0%3-16.0%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.8%4+-23.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 41.7% 2.40 +15.2%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -12.2%

Away win 27.6% 37.6% 2.66 -26.6%

Over 2.5 67.8% 61.7% 1.62 +9.8%

Over 3.5 46.2% 39.2% 2.55 +17.8%

BTTS 68.4% 66.7% 1.50 +2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob68.4%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomiak Radom2.0

Lechia Gdansk1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.8% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 1.87

LECHIA GDANSK · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Radomiak Radom (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +15.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.2%

Lechia Gdansk (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomiak Radom face Lechia Gdansk in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomiak Radom a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Lechia Gdansk 28%, so Radomiak Radom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Radomiak Radom and 1.5 for Lechia Gdansk (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.07 for Lechia Gdansk. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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