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Los Chankas vs D. Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 18:00

Los Chankas

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

D. Garcilaso

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.1%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-110.9%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.9%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 54.3% 1.84 +5.3%

Draw 26.2% 29.0% 3.45 -9.6%

Away win 16.6% 23.8% 4.20 -30.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 50.0% 2.00 +0.6%

Over 3.5 28.3% 28.2% 3.55 +0.5%

BTTS 50.8% 54.6% 1.83 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.8%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Chankas1.8

D. Garcilaso0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS CHANKAS · PPG 3.00

D. GARCILASO · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=57.2%

Win probability 1X2

Los Chankas (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +5.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.6%

D. Garcilaso (A) 16.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Chankas face D. Garcilaso in Peru - Primera División on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Chankas a 57% chance, the draw 26% and D. Garcilaso 17%, so Los Chankas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Los Chankas and 0.9 for D. Garcilaso (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Chankas are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.33 for D. Garcilaso. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Los Chankas vs D. Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions