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Kerry vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Kerry

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Cork City

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-114.9%0-210.8%0-35.2%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.5%1-112.3%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-03.5%2-15.1%2-23.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.7% 14.7% 6.80 +34.0%

Draw 30.6% 23.8% 4.20 +28.5%

Away win 49.8% 68.5% 1.46 -27.3%

Over 2.5 39.6% 51.8% 1.93 -23.6%

Over 3.5 19.5% 29.9% 3.35 -34.7%

BTTS 44.8% 50.0% 2.00 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob44.8%

A 50% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 14.9%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 0–2 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry0.8

Cork City1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.00

CORK CITY · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 19.7%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +34.0%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +28.5%

Cork City (A) 49.8%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Cork City in Ireland - First Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 20% chance, the draw 31% and Cork City 50%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Kerry and 1.4 for Cork City (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Cork City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Kerry vs Cork City Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions