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Rukh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 15:00

Rukh Lviv

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-111.0%0-28.7%0-34.6%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.5%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.0%2-16.4%2-25.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.5%3-12.3%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.1% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Draw 28.6% 28.2% 3.55 +1.5%

Away win 47.3% 57.8% 1.73 -18.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% 52.6% 1.90 -5.0%

Over 3.5 28.0% 30.8% 3.25 -9.0%

BTTS 54.4% 55.6% 1.80 -2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.4%

A 47% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2✓ 9.5%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 0–2 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rukh Lviv1.1

Zorya Luhansk1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RUKH LVIV · PPG 0.83

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Rukh Lviv (H) 24.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +1.5%

Zorya Luhansk (A) 47.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rukh Lviv face Zorya Luhansk in Ukraine - Premier League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rukh Lviv a 24% chance, the draw 29% and Zorya Luhansk 47%, so Zorya Luhansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rukh Lviv and 1.6 for Zorya Luhansk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rukh Lviv are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.08 for Zorya Luhansk. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Rukh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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