Rukh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Ukraine - Premier League Regular Season - 26 Arena Lviv· Lviv Monday, May 4, 2026 15:00

Rukh Lviv PPG 0.83

1-2 HIT CS2

Zorya Luhansk PPG 1.08

Draw· +1.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Rukh Lviv face Zorya Luhansk in Ukraine - Premier League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rukh Lviv a 24% chance, the draw 29% and Zorya Luhansk 47%, so Zorya Luhansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rukh Lviv and 1.6 for Zorya Luhansk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rukh Lviv are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.08 for Zorya Luhansk. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 24.1%

Odds: 4.20 EV: +1.2%

Draw 28.6%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +1.5%

Away 47.3%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -18.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 1.90 -5.0%

Over 3.5 28.0% Odds: 3.25 -9.0%

BTTS 54.4% Odds: 1.80 -2.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✔

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Rukh Lviv

1.08

Zorya Luhansk

1.59

Model SuggestionBTTS -2.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -2.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+1.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 63%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 57% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away AVERAGE (1.08)