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Chelsea vs Nottm Forest Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 14:00

Chelsea

PPG 1.35 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nottm Forest

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.0%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.9%1-112.0%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.1%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 60.2% 1.66 -29.6%

Draw 29.0% 26.3% 3.80 +10.2%

Away win 28.7% 20.4% 4.90 +40.6%

Over 2.5 51.2% 58.8% 1.70 -13.0%

Over 3.5 29.1% 36.4% 2.75 -20.0%

BTTS 56.6% 58.8% 1.70 -3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.6%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelsea1.5

Nottm Forest1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELSEA · PPG 1.35

NOTTM FOREST · PPG 1.24

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.35), Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Chelsea (H) 42.4%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -29.6%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +10.2%

Nottm Forest (A) 28.7%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +40.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelsea face Nottm Forest in England - Premier League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelsea a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Nottm Forest 29%, so Chelsea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chelsea and 1.2 for Nottm Forest (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelsea are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.24 for Nottm Forest. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Chelsea vs Nottm Forest Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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