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Treaty Utd vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Treaty Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wexford

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-111.9%0-28.6%0-34.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.5%2-16.6%2-24.8%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

Draw 30.0% 29.9% 3.35 +0.5%

Away win 44.5% 46.5% 2.15 -4.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 51.3% 1.95 -10.7%

Over 3.5 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -17.0%

BTTS 51.7% 58.8% 1.70 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.7%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treaty Utd1.1

Wexford1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TREATY UTD · PPG 1.00

WEXFORD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Treaty Utd (H) 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.2%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +0.5%

Wexford (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treaty Utd face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treaty Utd a 25% chance, the draw 30% and Wexford 45%, so Wexford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Treaty Utd and 1.5 for Wexford (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treaty Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Treaty Utd vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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