Today / Ireland - First Division / Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers

Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Finn Harps

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Bray Wanderers

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-111.9%0-26.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.6%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.5%2-17.4%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 32.8% 3.05 +0.0%

Draw 32.6% 27.4% 3.65 +19.0%

Away win 34.5% 46.7% 2.14 -26.2%

Over 2.5 39.5% 54.1% 1.85 -26.9%

Over 3.5 19.4% 30.8% 3.25 -37.0%

BTTS 48.0% 58.8% 1.70 -18.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.0%

D 33% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finn Harps1.1

Bray Wanderers1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.5% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.00

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Finn Harps (H) 32.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +0.0%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +19.0%

Bray Wanderers (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Bray Wanderers in Ireland - First Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 33% chance, the draw 33% and Bray Wanderers 35%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Finn Harps and 1.2 for Bray Wanderers (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Bray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions