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Kawkab M. vs Dcheira Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 18 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 20:00

Kawkab M.

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Dcheira

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-111.1%0-24.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.3%1-113.0%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-17.7%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 56.5% 1.77 -24.4%

Draw 34.2% 30.8% 3.25 +11.2%

Away win 23.1% 22.7% 4.40 +1.6%

Over 2.5 31.8% 45.5% 2.20 -30.0%

Over 3.5 13.9% 23.8% 4.20 -41.6%

BTTS 40.1% 50.0% 2.00 -19.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob40.1%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kawkab M.1.2

Dcheira0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.8% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KAWKAB M. · PPG 1.63

DCHEIRA · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Kawkab M. (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -24.4%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +11.2%

Dcheira (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kawkab M. face Dcheira in Morocco - Botola Pro on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kawkab M. a 43% chance, the draw 34% and Dcheira 23%, so Kawkab M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kawkab M. and 0.8 for Dcheira (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kawkab M. are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.38 for Dcheira. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Kawkab M. vs Dcheira Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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