Today / Chile - Primera B / San Luis vs U. San Felipe

San Luis vs U. San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 22:00

San Luis

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

U. San Felipe

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.1%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.9%1-110.9%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.9%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 48.8% 2.05 +6.6%

Draw 26.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 21.6% 32.3% 3.10 -33.0%

Over 2.5 55.3% 56.5% 1.77 -2.1%

Over 3.5 33.0% 33.9% 2.95 -2.6%

BTTS 57.3% 61.7% 1.62 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.3%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Luis1.8

U. San Felipe1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LUIS · PPG 2.00

U. SAN FELIPE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.0%

Win probability 1X2

San Luis (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +6.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

U. San Felipe (A) 21.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Luis face U. San Felipe in Chile - Primera B on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Luis a 52% chance, the draw 26% and U. San Felipe 22%, so San Luis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for San Luis and 1.1 for U. San Felipe (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Luis are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for U. San Felipe. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 4-0.

San Luis vs U. San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera B Predictions