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Derry City vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Derry City

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Galway Utd

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.8%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.5%1-112.0%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 55.6% 1.80 -20.1%

Draw 28.9% 28.6% 3.50 +1.1%

Away win 26.6% 23.1% 4.33 +15.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -3.8%

BTTS 55.5% 55.6% 1.80 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derry City1.5

Galway Utd1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.57

GALWAY UTD · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=44.4%

Win probability 1X2

Derry City (H) 44.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -20.1%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.1%

Galway Utd (A) 26.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face Galway Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Galway Utd 27%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Derry City and 1.1 for Galway Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.71 for Galway Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Derry City vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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