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Al Feiha vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:10

Al Feiha

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Riyadh

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.4%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.0%1-111.1%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.1%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 42.9% 2.33 +17.9%

Draw 26.9% 30.8% 3.25 -12.6%

Away win 22.5% 33.3% 3.00 -32.5%

Over 2.5 54.5% 48.8% 2.05 +11.7%

Over 3.5 32.2% 27.4% 3.65 +17.5%

BTTS 57.1% 56.5% 1.77 +1.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.1%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Feiha1.8

Al Riyadh1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL FEIHA · PPG 1.50

AL RIYADH · PPG 0.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=50.6%

Win probability 1X2

Al Feiha (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +17.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.6%

Al Riyadh (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Feiha face Al Riyadh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Feiha a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Al Riyadh 23%, so Al Feiha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Feiha and 1.1 for Al Riyadh (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Feiha are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.60 for Al Riyadh. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 4-2.

Al Feiha vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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