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Saudi-Arabia - Pro League
Regular Season - 31
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium· Buraidah
Monday, May 4, 2026
16:10
Al Feiha
PPG 1.50
4-2
MISS
Al Riyadh
PPG 0.60
Home· +17.9%
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
50.6%
Odds: 2.33
EV: +17.9%
Draw
26.9%
Odds: 3.25
EV: -12.6%
Away
22.5%
Odds: 3.00
EV: -32.5%
Model lean:
BTTS
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
54.5%
Odds: 2.05
+11.7%
Over 3.5
32.2%
Odds: 3.65
+17.5%
BTTS
57.1%
Odds: 1.77
+1.1%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
2-1
✘
3rd
2-0
✘
4th
1-0
✘
5th
0-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Al Feiha
1.75
Al Riyadh
1.11
Model Suggestion
BTTS
+1.1%
ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market:
BTTS.
Raw EV leader:
Home(+17.9%)
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=50.6%