Today / Spain - La Liga / Sevilla FC vs Real Sociedad

Sevilla FC vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 34 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 19:00

Sevilla FC

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Real Sociedad

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.4%0-25.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.3%1-111.1%1-28.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.4%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.8%3-14.2%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 43.1% 2.32 -16.3%

Draw 27.5% 29.4% 3.40 -6.5%

Away win 36.4% 34.2% 2.92 +6.3%

Over 2.5 58.3% 52.6% 1.90 +10.8%

Over 3.5 35.9% 30.3% 3.30 +18.5%

BTTS 62.5% 57.8% 1.73 +8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

A 36% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sevilla FC1.5

Real Sociedad1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SEVILLA FC · PPG 1.19

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Sevilla FC (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -16.3%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.5%

Real Sociedad (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sevilla FC face Real Sociedad in Spain - La Liga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sevilla FC a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Real Sociedad 36%, so Real Sociedad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sevilla FC and 1.5 for Real Sociedad (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sevilla FC are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.94 for Real Sociedad. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Sevilla FC vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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