Sevilla FC vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 34 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán· Sevilla Monday, May 4, 2026 19:00

Sevilla FC PPG 1.19

1-0 MISS

Real Sociedad PPG 0.94

Over3.5· +18.5% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sevilla FC face Real Sociedad in Spain - La Liga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sevilla FC a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Real Sociedad 36%, so Real Sociedad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sevilla FC and 1.5 for Real Sociedad (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sevilla FC are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.94 for Real Sociedad. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.1%

Odds: 2.32 EV: -16.3%

Draw 27.5%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -6.5%

Away 36.4%

Odds: 2.92 EV: +6.3%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.3% Odds: 1.90 +10.8%

Over 3.5 35.9% Odds: 3.30 +18.5%

BTTS 62.5% Odds: 1.73 +8.1%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sevilla FC

1.51

Real Sociedad

1.52

Model SuggestionBTTS +8.1% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+18.5%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5/Under 60%

BTTS/No 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -19.9%

Bet Hit 42% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away POOR (0.94)