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Bohemians vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 15 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Bohemians

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shelbourne

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.1%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.5%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 50.0% 2.00 -21.0%

Draw 30.1% 30.3% 3.30 -0.7%

Away win 30.4% 27.0% 3.70 +12.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 25.9% 26.3% 3.80 -1.6%

BTTS 54.1% 54.6% 1.83 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.1%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bohemians1.4

Shelbourne1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.43

SHELBOURNE · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

55%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Bohemians (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -21.0%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.7%

Shelbourne (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bohemians face Shelbourne in Ireland - Premier Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bohemians a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Shelbourne 30%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bohemians and 1.2 for Shelbourne (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bohemians are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.17 for Shelbourne. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Bohemians vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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