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A. Niigata (S) vs Young Lions Prediction— Singapore - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 11:30

A. Niigata (S)

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Young Lions

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 85.3% vs bookmaker-implied 93.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.0%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.0%1-13.6%1-21.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.2%2-16.5%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-17.8%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-019.8%4+-117.7%4+-27.9%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 85.3% 93.5% 1.07 -8.7%

Draw 10.0% 12.8% 7.80 -22.0%

Away win 4.7% 4.3% 23.00 +8.1%

Over 2.5 82.6% 82.0% 1.22 +0.8%

Over 3.5 65.7% 66.7% 1.50 -1.5%

BTTS 58.0% 50.0% 2.00 +16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 12.6%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.0%

H 85% / xG 3.6-0.9 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.7%

#2 4–0 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 4–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Niigata (S)3.6

Young Lions0.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.6% · O3.5 PROB 65.7%

Form & verdict PPG

A. NIIGATA (S) · PPG 2.50

YOUNG LIONS · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.78) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

A. Niigata (S) (H) 85.3%

ODDS 1.07 · IMPLIED 93.5% EV -8.7%

Draw 10.0%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV -22.0%

Young Lions (A) 4.7%

ODDS 23.00 · IMPLIED 4.3% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Niigata (S) face Young Lions in Singapore - Premier League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Niigata (S) a 85% chance, the draw 10% and Young Lions 5%, so A. Niigata (S) are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for A. Niigata (S) and 0.9 for Young Lions (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Niigata (S) are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Young Lions. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +16.0%. This match finished 1-0.

A. Niigata (S) vs Young Lions Prediction— Singapore - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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