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Persijap vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 12:00

Persijap

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Persija

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-112.4%0-29.6%0-34.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.8%2-15.9%2-24.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.2%3-11.9%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 21.7% 4.60 +1.2%

Draw 29.2% 28.2% 3.55 +3.7%

Away win 48.8% 59.9% 1.67 -18.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Over 3.5 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -21.0%

BTTS 50.9% 55.6% 1.80 -8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob50.9%

A 49% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.0%

#4 0–2✓ 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persijap1.0

Persija1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIJAP · PPG 1.40

PERSIJA · PPG 1.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.40) vs Away GOOD (1.87)

Win probability 1X2

Persijap (H) 22.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.2%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +3.7%

Persija (A) 48.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persijap face Persija in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persijap a 22% chance, the draw 29% and Persija 49%, so Persija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Persijap and 1.5 for Persija (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persijap are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.87 for Persija. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Persijap vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions