Persijap vs Persija Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 31 Gelora Bumi Kartini Stadium· Jepara Monday, May 4, 2026 12:00

Persijap PPG 1.40

0-2 HIT CS4

Persija PPG 1.87

Draw· +3.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Persijap face Persija in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persijap a 22% chance, the draw 29% and Persija 49%, so Persija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Persijap and 1.5 for Persija (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persijap are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.87 for Persija. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 22.0%

Odds: 4.60 EV: +1.2%

Draw 29.2%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +3.7%

Away 48.8%

Odds: 1.67 EV: -18.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.2% Odds: 1.85 -14.5%

Over 3.5 24.7% Odds: 3.20 -21.0%

BTTS 50.9% Odds: 1.80 -8.4%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-2 ✔

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Persijap

0.98

Persija

1.55

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+3.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.40) vs Away GOOD (1.87)