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Everton vs Manchester City Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 35 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 19:00

Everton

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Manchester City

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-111.2%0-28.5%0-34.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.3%2-16.6%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.2% 15.4% 6.50 +63.8%

Draw 29.2% 22.7% 4.40 +28.5%

Away win 45.6% 69.0% 1.45 -33.9%

Over 2.5 48.6% 61.7% 1.62 -21.3%

Over 3.5 26.8% 39.2% 2.55 -31.7%

BTTS 53.8% 57.1% 1.75 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.8%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 11.2%

#3 1–2 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton1.1

Manchester City1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON · PPG 1.29

MANCHESTER CITY · PPG 1.82

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

56%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.82) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Everton (H) 25.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +63.8%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +28.5%

Manchester City (A) 45.6%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -33.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton face Manchester City in England - Premier League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton a 25% chance, the draw 29% and Manchester City 46%, so Manchester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Everton and 1.5 for Manchester City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.82 for Manchester City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +63.8%. This match finished 3-3.

Everton vs Manchester City Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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