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Penarol vs Defensor S. Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 14 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 22:30

Penarol

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Defensor S.

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-112.0%0-25.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.3%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.5%2-17.4%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.1%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 58.5% 1.71 -33.7%

Draw 34.7% 29.9% 3.35 +16.2%

Away win 26.5% 20.6% 4.85 +28.5%

Over 2.5 32.0% 45.5% 2.20 -29.6%

Over 3.5 14.0% 23.8% 4.20 -41.2%

BTTS 41.1% 48.8% 2.05 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.1%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penarol1.1

Defensor S.0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAROL · PPG 1.57

DEFENSOR S. · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Penarol (H) 38.8%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -33.7%

Draw 34.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +16.2%

Defensor S. (A) 26.5%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penarol face Defensor S. in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penarol a 39% chance, the draw 35% and Defensor S. 27%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Penarol and 0.9 for Defensor S. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penarol are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for Defensor S.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Penarol vs Defensor S. Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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