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Aston Villa W vs West Ham W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 12:00

Aston Villa W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

West Ham W

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.0%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.5%1-19.8%1-26.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.6%2-26.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.8%3-16.2%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.8%4+-23.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 53.2% 1.88 -4.1%

Draw 24.9% 27.4% 3.65 -9.1%

Away win 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -15.7%

Over 2.5 63.3% 60.6% 1.65 +4.4%

Over 3.5 41.2% 38.5% 2.60 +7.1%

BTTS 64.1% 64.5% 1.55 -0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.1%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aston Villa W2.0

West Ham W1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTON VILLA W · PPG 1.00

WEST HAM W · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Aston Villa W (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -4.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.1%

West Ham W (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aston Villa W face West Ham W in England - FA WSL on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aston Villa W a 51% chance, the draw 25% and West Ham W 24%, so Aston Villa W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aston Villa W and 1.3 for West Ham W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aston Villa W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.60 for West Ham W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Aston Villa W vs West Ham W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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