Aston Villa W vs West Ham W Prediction— England - FA WSL

England - FA WSL Regular Season - 21 Bescot Stadium· Walsall Monday, May 4, 2026 12:00

Aston Villa W PPG 1.00

0-2 MISS

West Ham W PPG 0.60

Over3.5· +7.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Aston Villa W face West Ham W in England - FA WSL on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aston Villa W a 51% chance, the draw 25% and West Ham W 24%, so Aston Villa W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aston Villa W and 1.3 for West Ham W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aston Villa W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.60 for West Ham W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.0%

Odds: 1.88 EV: -4.1%

Draw 24.9%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -9.1%

Away 24.1%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -15.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.3% Odds: 1.65 +4.4%

Over 3.5 41.2% Odds: 2.60 +7.1%

BTTS 64.1% Odds: 1.55 -0.6%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aston Villa W

1.95

West Ham W

1.31

Model SuggestionBTTS -0.6% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.6%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 42%

Score Hit 42%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

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Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.60)