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Hassania Agadir vs Olympic Safi Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Regular Season - 18 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Hassania Agadir

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Olympic Safi

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-111.2%0-25.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-17.9%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 39.2% 2.55 -3.6%

Draw 33.0% 34.5% 2.90 -4.3%

Away win 29.3% 36.4% 2.75 -19.4%

Over 2.5 37.8% 40.8% 2.45 -7.4%

Over 3.5 18.1% 21.1% 4.75 -14.0%

BTTS 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.3%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hassania Agadir1.2

Olympic Safi1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HASSANIA AGADIR · PPG 1.00

OLYMPIC SAFI · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Hassania Agadir (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -3.6%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -4.3%

Olympic Safi (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hassania Agadir face Olympic Safi in Morocco - Botola Pro on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hassania Agadir a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Olympic Safi 29%, so Hassania Agadir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hassania Agadir and 1.0 for Olympic Safi (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hassania Agadir are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Olympic Safi. This match finished 2-1.

Hassania Agadir vs Olympic Safi Prediction— Morocco - Botola Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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