FC Porto B vs Felgueiras Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Portugal - Segunda Liga Regular Season - 32 Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes· Vila Nova de Gaia Monday, May 4, 2026 17:00

FC Porto B PPG 1.73

1-0 HIT CS3

Felgueiras PPG 1.07

Home· +18.4% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto B face Felgueiras in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto B a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Felgueiras 27%, so FC Porto B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Porto B and 1.0 for Felgueiras (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto B are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.07 for Felgueiras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.0%

Odds: 2.96 EV: +18.4%

Draw 32.6%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +1.1%

Away 27.4%

Odds: 2.32 EV: -36.4%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.4% Odds: 2.15 -17.4%

Over 3.5 18.5% Odds: 3.95 -26.9%

BTTS 46.5% Odds: 1.80 -16.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Porto B

1.24

Felgueiras

0.98

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)