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FC Porto B vs Felgueiras Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 17:00

FC Porto B

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Felgueiras

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-110.7%0-25.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.2%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-18.2%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 33.8% 2.96 +18.4%

Draw 32.6% 32.3% 3.10 +1.1%

Away win 27.4% 43.1% 2.32 -36.4%

Over 2.5 38.4% 46.5% 2.15 -17.4%

Over 3.5 18.5% 25.3% 3.95 -26.9%

BTTS 46.5% 55.6% 1.80 -16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.5%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0✓ 13.4%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Porto B1.2

Felgueiras1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PORTO B · PPG 1.73

FELGUEIRAS · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

FC Porto B (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +18.4%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.1%

Felgueiras (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -36.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto B face Felgueiras in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto B a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Felgueiras 27%, so FC Porto B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Porto B and 1.0 for Felgueiras (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto B are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.07 for Felgueiras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Porto B vs Felgueiras Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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