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Persib vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 08:30

Persib

PPG 2.87 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

PSIM Yogyakarta

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.6%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.2%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.4%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 82.0% 1.22 -30.6%

Draw 27.1% 19.6% 5.10 +38.2%

Away win 16.0% 9.1% 11.00 +76.0%

Over 2.5 46.0% 61.7% 1.62 -25.5%

Over 3.5 24.6% 40.0% 2.50 -38.5%

BTTS 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0✓ 13.8%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persib1.7

PSIM Yogyakarta0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSIB · PPG 2.87

PSIM YOGYAKARTA · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.87) vs P(Home)=56.9%

Win probability 1X2

Persib (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -30.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +38.2%

PSIM Yogyakarta (A) 16.0%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +76.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persib face PSIM Yogyakarta in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persib a 57% chance, the draw 27% and PSIM Yogyakarta 16%, so Persib are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Persib and 0.8 for PSIM Yogyakarta (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persib are averaging 2.87 points per game versus 1.33 for PSIM Yogyakarta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +76.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Persib vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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