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Longford Town vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Longford Town

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Athlone Town

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-113.0%0-25.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-113.4%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.1%2-16.9%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.4%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 48.8% 2.05 -24.1%

Draw 35.9% 29.0% 3.45 +23.9%

Away win 27.1% 29.0% 3.45 -6.5%

Over 2.5 28.9% 54.1% 1.85 -46.5%

Over 3.5 12.1% 32.3% 3.10 -62.5%

BTTS 38.7% 59.9% 1.67 -35.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob38.7%

D 36% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1✓ 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Longford Town1.0

Athlone Town0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.9% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.67

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Longford Town (H) 37.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -24.1%

Draw 35.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +23.9%

Athlone Town (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 37% chance, the draw 36% and Athlone Town 27%, so Longford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Longford Town and 0.8 for Athlone Town (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Athlone Town. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Longford Town vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions