Longford Town vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Ireland - First Division Regular Season - 14 Bishopsgate· Longford Monday, May 4, 2026 16:00

Longford Town PPG 1.67

1-1 HIT CS2

Athlone Town PPG 1.00

Draw· +23.9% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 37% chance, the draw 36% and Athlone Town 27%, so Longford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Longford Town and 0.8 for Athlone Town (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Athlone Town. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.0%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -24.1%

Draw 35.9%

Odds: 3.45 EV: +23.9%

Away 27.1%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -6.5%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 28.9% Odds: 1.85 -46.5%

Over 3.5 12.1% Odds: 3.10 -62.5%

BTTS 38.7% Odds: 1.67 -35.4%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Longford Town

1.03

Athlone Town

0.85

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)