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Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Al-Najma

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al-Muharraq

PPG 2.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-116.3%0-214.2%0-38.2%0-4+5.3%1 1-05.9%1-110.2%1-28.9%1-35.2%1-4+3.3%2 2-01.8%2-13.2%2-22.8%2-31.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.4% 18.2% 5.50 -37.3%

Draw 25.8% 25.0% 4.00 +3.2%

Away win 62.8% 66.7% 1.50 -5.8%

Over 2.5 42.3% 56.5% 1.77 -25.1%

Over 3.5 21.5% 33.9% 2.95 -36.6%

BTTS 40.0% 54.6% 1.83 -26.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob40.0%

A 63% / xG 0.6-1.7 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.3%

#2 0–2 14.2%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Najma0.6

Al-Muharraq1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-NAJMA · PPG 1.67

AL-MUHARRAQ · PPG 2.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Al-Najma (H) 11.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -37.3%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.2%

Al-Muharraq (A) 62.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Najma face Al-Muharraq in Bahrain - Premier League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Najma a 11% chance, the draw 26% and Al-Muharraq 63%, so Al-Muharraq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Al-Najma and 1.7 for Al-Muharraq (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Najma are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.56 for Al-Muharraq. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Al-Najma vs Al-Muharraq Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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