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Torreense vs Penafiel Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 17:00

Torreense

PPG 1.73 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Penafiel

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.8%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.9%1-113.2%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-18.1%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 54.3% 1.84 -25.3%

Draw 32.9% 30.3% 3.30 +8.6%

Away win 26.5% 24.4% 4.10 +8.6%

Over 2.5 37.1% 50.0% 2.00 -25.8%

Over 3.5 17.6% 29.4% 3.40 -40.2%

BTTS 45.3% 55.6% 1.80 -18.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.3%

H 41% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torreense1.2

Penafiel0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TORREENSE · PPG 1.73

PENAFIEL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Torreense (H) 40.6%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -25.3%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +8.6%

Penafiel (A) 26.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torreense face Penafiel in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torreense a 41% chance, the draw 33% and Penafiel 27%, so Torreense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Torreense and 0.9 for Penafiel (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torreense are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.00 for Penafiel. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Torreense vs Penafiel Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Segunda Liga Predictions