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Al Ittihad vs Al Kholood Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 18:00

Al Ittihad

PPG 1.93 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Kholood

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.8%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.4%1-111.4%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 67.6% 1.48 -31.3%

Draw 27.6% 21.7% 4.60 +27.0%

Away win 26.0% 17.2% 5.80 +50.8%

Over 2.5 54.7% 66.7% 1.50 -17.9%

Over 3.5 32.3% 44.4% 2.25 -27.3%

BTTS 58.5% 62.5% 1.60 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0✓ 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ittihad1.7

Al Kholood1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 1.93

AL KHOLOOD · PPG 1.27

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ittihad (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -31.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +27.0%

Al Kholood (A) 26.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +50.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ittihad face Al Kholood in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ittihad a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Al Kholood 26%, so Al Ittihad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Ittihad and 1.2 for Al Kholood (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ittihad are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.27 for Al Kholood. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Al Ittihad vs Al Kholood Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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