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Italy - Serie A Monday, May 4, 2026 18:45 
AS Roma PPG 2.12 
Fiorentina PPG 1.06
Italy - Serie A Monday, May 4, 2026 18:45 AS Roma PPG 2.124-0 MISS
Fiorentina PPG 1.06Draw· +15.4% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 42.7% Odds: 1.85 -21.0%
Over 3.5 21.8% Odds: 3.20 -30.2%
BTTS 47.1% Odds: 1.90 -10.5%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 1-0 ✘
3rd 0-0 ✘
4th 2-0 ✘
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma 1.52
Fiorentina 0.87
Model Suggestion
Home -20.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -20.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+15.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+15.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 80%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.12) vs P(Home)=50.7%