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AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 35 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 18:45

AS Roma

PPG 2.12 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Fiorentina

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-18.0%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.0%1-112.1%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.2%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.7%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 63.7% 1.57 -20.4%

Draw 29.6% 25.6% 3.90 +15.4%

Away win 19.7% 17.9% 5.60 +10.3%

Over 2.5 42.7% 54.1% 1.85 -21.0%

Over 3.5 21.8% 31.3% 3.20 -30.2%

BTTS 47.1% 52.6% 1.90 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.1%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AS Roma1.5

Fiorentina0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AS ROMA · PPG 2.12

FIORENTINA · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.12) vs P(Home)=50.7%

Win probability 1X2

AS Roma (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -20.4%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +15.4%

Fiorentina (A) 19.7%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Roma face Fiorentina in Italy - Serie A on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Roma a 51% chance, the draw 30% and Fiorentina 20%, so AS Roma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AS Roma and 0.9 for Fiorentina (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Roma are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.06 for Fiorentina. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 4-0.

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions