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Sligo Rovers vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 15 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Sligo Rovers

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

St. Patricks

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-113.6%0-29.9%0-34.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.6%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.9%2-15.7%2-24.1%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.2%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% 20.8% 4.80 +4.6%

Draw 30.3% 27.0% 3.70 +12.1%

Away win 47.8% 59.2% 1.69 -19.2%

Over 2.5 42.2% 51.3% 1.95 -17.7%

Over 3.5 21.5% 29.4% 3.40 -26.9%

BTTS 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob47.8%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 0–1 13.6%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 0–2 9.9%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sligo Rovers0.9

St. Patricks1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 1.43

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Sligo Rovers (H) 21.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +4.6%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +12.1%

St. Patricks (A) 47.8%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sligo Rovers face St. Patricks in Ireland - Premier Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sligo Rovers a 22% chance, the draw 30% and St. Patricks 48%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sligo Rovers and 1.5 for St. Patricks (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.57 for St. Patricks. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Sligo Rovers vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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