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R. Surdulica vs Vojvodina Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 34 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 15:00

R. Surdulica

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vojvodina

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.5%0-26.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.9%1-112.8%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.0%2-17.8%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 31.3% 3.20 +5.0%

Draw 30.8% 31.7% 3.15 -3.0%

Away win 36.4% 45.9% 2.18 -20.6%

Over 2.5 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

Over 3.5 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -7.3%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

D 31% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Surdulica1.2

Vojvodina1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

R. SURDULICA · PPG 1.75

VOJVODINA · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

R. Surdulica (H) 32.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +5.0%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -3.0%

Vojvodina (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Surdulica face Vojvodina in Serbia - Super Liga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Surdulica a 33% chance, the draw 31% and Vojvodina 36%, so Vojvodina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for R. Surdulica and 1.3 for Vojvodina (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Surdulica are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.81 for Vojvodina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 1-4.

R. Surdulica vs Vojvodina Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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