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Al Ittifaq vs Al Najma Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 18:00

Al Ittifaq

PPG 1.73 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Najma

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.7%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.3%1-18.4%1-24.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.4%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-17.3%4+-24.2%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 65.4% 1.53 -5.6%

Draw 21.6% 23.1% 4.33 -6.5%

Away win 16.7% 18.2% 5.50 -8.2%

Over 2.5 66.9% 65.4% 1.53 +2.4%

Over 3.5 45.2% 43.5% 2.30 +4.0%

BTTS 62.8% 63.7% 1.57 -1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.8%

H 62% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ittifaq2.3

Al Najma1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ITTIFAQ · PPG 1.73

AL NAJMA · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

Al Ittifaq (H) 61.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -5.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -6.5%

Al Najma (A) 16.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ittifaq face Al Najma in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ittifaq a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Al Najma 17%, so Al Ittifaq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Al Ittifaq and 1.2 for Al Najma (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ittifaq are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.13 for Al Najma. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Al Ittifaq vs Al Najma Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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