Al Ittifaq vs Al Najma Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 31 Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium· Dammam Monday, May 4, 2026 18:00

Al Ittifaq PPG 1.73

0-0 MISS

Al Najma PPG 0.13

Over3.5· +4.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ittifaq face Al Najma in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ittifaq a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Al Najma 17%, so Al Ittifaq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Al Ittifaq and 1.2 for Al Najma (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ittifaq are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.13 for Al Najma. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.7%

Odds: 1.53 EV: -5.6%

Draw 21.6%

Odds: 4.33 EV: -6.5%

Away 16.7%

Odds: 5.50 EV: -8.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 66.9% Odds: 1.53 +2.4%

Over 3.5 45.2% Odds: 2.30 +4.0%

BTTS 62.8% Odds: 1.57 -1.4%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Ittifaq

2.29

Al Najma

1.15

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +2.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+4.0%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.73) vs P(Home)=61.7%