Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Apertura - 9 Jose Amalfitani· Buenos Aires Monday, May 4, 2026 22:15

Velez Sarsfield PPG 2.00

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Newells PPG 1.00

Away· +0.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Velez Sarsfield face Newells in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velez Sarsfield a 55% chance, the draw 28% and Newells 17%, so Velez Sarsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.8 for Newells (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velez Sarsfield are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Newells. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 55.0%

Odds: 1.62 EV: -10.9%

Draw 28.3%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -0.9%

Away 16.7%

Odds: 6.00 EV: +0.2%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.1% Odds: 2.25 -3.0%

Over 3.5 22.2% Odds: 4.20 -6.8%

BTTS 45.5% Odds: 2.15 -2.2%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Velez Sarsfield

1.61

Newells

0.79

Model SuggestionHome -10.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -10.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+0.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.0%