Today / Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina / Velez Sarsfield vs Newells

Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 9 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 22:15

Velez Sarsfield

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Newells

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-17.2%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-111.6%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-15.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Draw 28.3% 28.6% 3.50 -0.9%

Away win 16.7% 16.7% 6.00 +0.2%

Over 2.5 43.1% 44.4% 2.25 -3.0%

Over 3.5 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

BTTS 45.5% 46.5% 2.15 -2.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.5%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velez Sarsfield1.6

Newells0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VELEZ SARSFIELD · PPG 2.00

NEWELLS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.0%

Win probability 1X2

Velez Sarsfield (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -10.9%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.9%

Newells (A) 16.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velez Sarsfield face Newells in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velez Sarsfield a 55% chance, the draw 28% and Newells 17%, so Velez Sarsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.8 for Newells (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velez Sarsfield are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Newells. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions