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Comunicaciones vs Ituzaingo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 23:00

Comunicaciones

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ituzaingo

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-18.4%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-111.8%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.3%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 57.8% 1.73 -8.0%

Draw 31.0% 32.3% 3.10 -3.9%

Away win 15.7% 20.0% 5.00 -21.5%

Over 2.5 34.0% 39.2% 2.55 -13.3%

Over 3.5 15.4% 22.2% 4.50 -30.7%

BTTS 38.1% 44.4% 2.25 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.1%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comunicaciones1.4

Ituzaingo0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 1.67

ITUZAINGO · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Comunicaciones (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.0%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.9%

Ituzaingo (A) 15.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comunicaciones face Ituzaingo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comunicaciones a 53% chance, the draw 31% and Ituzaingo 16%, so Comunicaciones are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Comunicaciones and 0.7 for Ituzaingo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comunicaciones are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.17 for Ituzaingo. This match finished 3-2.

Comunicaciones vs Ituzaingo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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