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Qarabag vs Turan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 15:30

Qarabag

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Turan

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.0%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.8%1-113.0%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.5%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 67.6% 1.48 -36.4%

Draw 32.1% 26.7% 3.75 +20.4%

Away win 25.0% 16.0% 6.25 +56.3%

Over 2.5 39.0% 52.6% 1.90 -25.9%

Over 3.5 19.0% 30.8% 3.25 -38.3%

BTTS 46.4% 51.8% 1.93 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.4%

H 43% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qarabag1.3

Turan0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

QARABAG · PPG 2.00

TURAN · PPG 1.93

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.93)

Win probability 1X2

Qarabag (H) 43.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -36.4%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +20.4%

Turan (A) 25.0%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +56.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qarabag face Turan in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qarabag a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Turan 25%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Qarabag and 0.9 for Turan (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qarabag are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.93 for Turan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +56.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Qarabag vs Turan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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